The New Old Age Blog: In Flu Season,Use a Mask. But Which One?

Do face masks help prevent people from getting the flu? And if so, how much protection do they give?

You might think the answer to this question would be well established. It’s not.

In fact, there is considerable uncertainty over how well face masks guard against influenza when people use them outside of hospitals and other health care settings. This has been a topic of discussion and debate in infectious disease circles since the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, also known as swine flu.

As the government noted in a document that provides guidance on the issue, “Very little information is available about the effectiveness of facemasks and respirators in controlling the spread of pandemic influenza in community settings.” This is also true of seasonal influenza — the kind that strikes every winter and that we are experiencing now, experts said.

Let’s jump to the bottom line for older people and caregivers before getting into the details. If someone is ill with the flu, coughing and sneezing and living with others, say an older spouse who is a bit frail, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends the use of a face mask “if available and tolerable” or a tissue to cover the nose and mouth.

If you are healthy and serving as a caregiver for someone who has the flu — say, an older person who is ill and at home — the C.D.C. recommends using a face mask or a respirator. (I’ll explain the difference between those items in just a bit.) But if you are a household member who is not in close contact with the sick person, keep at a distance and there is no need to use a face mask or respirator, the C.D.C. advises.

The recommendations are included in another document related to pandemic influenza — a flu caused by a new virus that circulates widely and ends up going global because people lack immunity. That is not a threat this year, but the H3N2 virus that is circulating widely is hitting many older adults especially hard. So the precautions are a good idea, even outside a pandemic situation, said Dr. Ed Septimus, a spokesman for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

The key idea here is exposure, Dr. Septimus said. If you are a caregiver and intimately exposed to someone who is coughing, sneezing and has the flu, wearing a mask probably makes sense — as it does if you are the person with the flu doing the coughing and sneezing and a caregiver is nearby.

But the scientific evidence about how influenza is transmitted is not as strong as experts would like, said Dr. Carolyn Bridges, associate director of adult immunization at the C.D.C. It is generally accepted that the flu virus is transmitted through direct contact — when someone who is ill touches his or her nose and then a glass that he or she hands to someone else, for instance — and through large droplets that go flying through the air when a person coughs or sneezes. What is not known is the extent to which tiny aerosol particles are implicated in transmission.

Evidence suggests that these tiny particles may play a more important part than previously suspected. For example, a November 2010 study in the journal PLoS One found that 81 percent of flu patients sent viral material through air expelled by coughs, and 65 percent of the virus consisted of small particles that can be inhaled and lodge deeper in the lungs than large droplets.

That is a relevant finding when it comes to masks, which cover much of the face below the eyes but not tightly, letting air in through gaps around the nose and mouth. As the C.D.C.’s advisory noted, “Facemasks help stop droplets from being spread by the person wearing them. They also keep splashes or sprays from reaching the mouth and nose of the person wearing them. They are not designed to protect against breathing in the very small particle aerosols that may contain viruses.”

In other words, you will get some protection, but it is not clear how much. In most circumstances, “if you’re caring for a family member with influenza, I think a surgical mask is perfectly adequate,” said Dr. Carol McLay, an infection control consultant based in Lexington, Ky.

By contrast, respirators fit tightly over someone’s face and are made of materials that filter out small particles that carry the influenza virus. They are recommended for health care workers who are in intimate contact with patients and who have to perform activities like suctioning their lungs. So-called N95 respirators block at least 95 percent of small particles in tests, if properly fitted.

Training in how to use respirators is mandated in hospitals, but no such requirement applies outside, and consumers frequently put them on improperly. One study of respirator use in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, when mold was a problem, found that only 24 percent of users put them on the right way. Also, it can be hard to breathe when respirators are used, and this can affect people’s willingness to use them as recommended.

Unfortunately, research about the relative effectiveness of masks and respirators is not robust, and there is no guidance backed by scientific evidence available for consumers, Dr. Bridges said. Nor is there any clear way of assessing the relative merits of various products being sold to the public, which differ in design and materials used.

“Honestly, some of the ones I’ve seen are almost like a paper towel with straps,” Dr. McLay said. Her advice: go with name-brand items used by your local hospital.

Meanwhile, it is worth repeating: The single most important thing that older people and caregivers can do to prevent the flu is to be vaccinated, Dr. Bridges said. “It’s the best tool we have,” she said, noting that preventing flu also involves vigilant hand washing, using tissues or arms to block sneezing, and staying home when ill so people do not transmit the virus. And it is by no means too late to get a shot, whose cost Medicare will cover for older adults.

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The New Old Age Blog: In Flu Season,Use a Mask. But Which One?

Do face masks help prevent people from getting the flu? And if so, how much protection do they give?

You might think the answer to this question would be well established. It’s not.

In fact, there is considerable uncertainty over how well face masks guard against influenza when people use them outside of hospitals and other health care settings. This has been a topic of discussion and debate in infectious disease circles since the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, also known as swine flu.

As the government noted in a document that provides guidance on the issue, “Very little information is available about the effectiveness of facemasks and respirators in controlling the spread of pandemic influenza in community settings.” This is also true of seasonal influenza — the kind that strikes every winter and that we are experiencing now, experts said.

Let’s jump to the bottom line for older people and caregivers before getting into the details. If someone is ill with the flu, coughing and sneezing and living with others, say an older spouse who is a bit frail, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends the use of a face mask “if available and tolerable” or a tissue to cover the nose and mouth.

If you are healthy and serving as a caregiver for someone who has the flu — say, an older person who is ill and at home — the C.D.C. recommends using a face mask or a respirator. (I’ll explain the difference between those items in just a bit.) But if you are a household member who is not in close contact with the sick person, keep at a distance and there is no need to use a face mask or respirator, the C.D.C. advises.

The recommendations are included in another document related to pandemic influenza — a flu caused by a new virus that circulates widely and ends up going global because people lack immunity. That is not a threat this year, but the H3N2 virus that is circulating widely is hitting many older adults especially hard. So the precautions are a good idea, even outside a pandemic situation, said Dr. Ed Septimus, a spokesman for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

The key idea here is exposure, Dr. Septimus said. If you are a caregiver and intimately exposed to someone who is coughing, sneezing and has the flu, wearing a mask probably makes sense — as it does if you are the person with the flu doing the coughing and sneezing and a caregiver is nearby.

But the scientific evidence about how influenza is transmitted is not as strong as experts would like, said Dr. Carolyn Bridges, associate director of adult immunization at the C.D.C. It is generally accepted that the flu virus is transmitted through direct contact — when someone who is ill touches his or her nose and then a glass that he or she hands to someone else, for instance — and through large droplets that go flying through the air when a person coughs or sneezes. What is not known is the extent to which tiny aerosol particles are implicated in transmission.

Evidence suggests that these tiny particles may play a more important part than previously suspected. For example, a November 2010 study in the journal PLoS One found that 81 percent of flu patients sent viral material through air expelled by coughs, and 65 percent of the virus consisted of small particles that can be inhaled and lodge deeper in the lungs than large droplets.

That is a relevant finding when it comes to masks, which cover much of the face below the eyes but not tightly, letting air in through gaps around the nose and mouth. As the C.D.C.’s advisory noted, “Facemasks help stop droplets from being spread by the person wearing them. They also keep splashes or sprays from reaching the mouth and nose of the person wearing them. They are not designed to protect against breathing in the very small particle aerosols that may contain viruses.”

In other words, you will get some protection, but it is not clear how much. In most circumstances, “if you’re caring for a family member with influenza, I think a surgical mask is perfectly adequate,” said Dr. Carol McLay, an infection control consultant based in Lexington, Ky.

By contrast, respirators fit tightly over someone’s face and are made of materials that filter out small particles that carry the influenza virus. They are recommended for health care workers who are in intimate contact with patients and who have to perform activities like suctioning their lungs. So-called N95 respirators block at least 95 percent of small particles in tests, if properly fitted.

Training in how to use respirators is mandated in hospitals, but no such requirement applies outside, and consumers frequently put them on improperly. One study of respirator use in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, when mold was a problem, found that only 24 percent of users put them on the right way. Also, it can be hard to breathe when respirators are used, and this can affect people’s willingness to use them as recommended.

Unfortunately, research about the relative effectiveness of masks and respirators is not robust, and there is no guidance backed by scientific evidence available for consumers, Dr. Bridges said. Nor is there any clear way of assessing the relative merits of various products being sold to the public, which differ in design and materials used.

“Honestly, some of the ones I’ve seen are almost like a paper towel with straps,” Dr. McLay said. Her advice: go with name-brand items used by your local hospital.

Meanwhile, it is worth repeating: The single most important thing that older people and caregivers can do to prevent the flu is to be vaccinated, Dr. Bridges said. “It’s the best tool we have,” she said, noting that preventing flu also involves vigilant hand washing, using tissues or arms to block sneezing, and staying home when ill so people do not transmit the virus. And it is by no means too late to get a shot, whose cost Medicare will cover for older adults.

Read More..

Gadgetwise Blog: Tip of the Week: Monitor Your Memory

If your computer seems to be running slowly and acting as if it does not have enough memory installed, you can use software that comes with the operating system to see what is going on under the hood.

On a Windows system, open the Task Manager program by right-clicking on the Windows task bar and choosing Start Task Manager. (You can also use the keyboard shortcuts of Control-Alt-Delete or Control-Shift-Escape to summon the Task Manager.) In the Task Manager window, you can see all the programs, services and processes currently running on the computer. You can also use the Task Manager to close an application that is not responding; Microsoft has a demonstrations video online.

On a Mac, open the Activity Monitor program. Go to the Applications folder, then to the Utilities folder and double-click on the Activity Monitor icon. On Macs with the Launchpad feature, just click the Launchpad icon in the Dock, click the Other icon and open Activity Monitor. Here, you can see the amount of system memory being used, what programs and processes are currently running and other system information. Apple has more information about using the Activity Monitor and steps for quitting a frozen or memory-hogging program on its site.

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India Ink: India's Police Force Lags Much of World

A recent spate of violent crimes against women in northern India has led to increased scrutiny of the Indian police force. In Delhi, after the gang rape and subsequent death of a young woman, residents called for the resignation of the city’s chief of police and the retraining of the overwhelmingly male police force.

But perhaps the question that should be asked about India’s police officers is whether there are enough of them in the first place.

On the basis of police per capita, India is the second lowest among 50 countries ranked by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, using 2010 data. Police forces around the world are commonly measured as the number of police per 100,000 people, and India has 129. Only Uganda fares worse.

While this ratio has increased significantly in India over the last decade, it remains far behind many other major economies. (The worldwide average is closer to 350).

Scotland, for example, has around 330 officers per 100,000; South Africa had 327, the United States had 238 officers, and Canada had 201, according to 2011 data.

Not surprisingly, some studies suggest that adding police officers reduces crime. “A nation with a larger proportion of police officers is somewhat more likely to have a lower crime rate,” said a 2006 report by the Institute for the Study of Civil Society, which looked at law enforcement data from European countries.

Just weeks before the gang rape in New Delhi on Dec.16, the Indian Supreme Court laid down guidelines to check sexual harassment, including greater deployment of female police officers in public spaces:

All states and Union Territories are directed to depute plain-clothed female police officers in the precincts of bus-stands and stops, railway stations, metro stations, cinema theatres, shopping malls, parks, beaches, public service vehicles, places of worship to monitor and supervise incidents of sexual harassment.

But, without significant increase in hiring, that may be difficult. The number of female police constables in the country was only 84,479 out of 1,585,117 officers, or about 5 percent of the total police force in 2011.

India’s judiciary is also considered understaffed. The country’s judge-to-population ratio would be the fourth lowest in the world, if the country were included in a 2008 U.N. study that looked at 65 countries. Only Guatemala, Nicaragua and Kenya had a lower ratio than India, which only had 14 judges per million population in 2008.

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DealBook: Alibaba's Founder to Give Up C.E.O. Title, but Will Remain Chairman

After 14 years of building up the Alibaba Group into one of the biggest Internet companies in the world, Jack Ma is taking a step back from the chief executive role of the Chinese e-commerce giant.

But Mr. Ma isn’t leaving entirely; he will hold on to the role of executive chairman, he told DealBook in an interview on Monday. He plans to name his successor when his title change becomes effective on May 10.

He won’t be the only one to hand over some of the company’s reins. Mr. Ma said that most of Alibaba’s leaders “born in the 1960s” will pass their leadership responsibilities to younger colleagues, born in the 1970s and 1980s.

“We believe that they understand the future better than us, and then have a better chance of seizing the future,” he wrote in an e-mail to employees explaining his change in duties.

The shift is the biggest change yet at Alibaba in some time, as it continues to ready itself for the next chapter of its existence. Last week, the company said that it was cleaving itself into 25 smaller divisions — to give managers more flexibility.

And it follows the transformative deal that Alibaba struck with Yahoo last year, in which the Chinese company agreed to buy back about half of the stake in itself held by Yahoo, its American partner. Alibaba had long sought to repurchase the shares to help regain control over its corporate destiny.

For Mr. Ma, the decision to step back from day-to-day management was borne of several reasons. One of them was personal: the job is increasingly tiring.

“I’m 48. I’m no longer young enough to run such a fast-growing business,” Mr. Ma said in the interview. “When I was 35, I was so energetic and fresh-thinking. I had nothing to worry about.”

Come May, Mr. Ma will slide into the role of executive chairman, which he said would let him focus on broad strategic issues, as well as corporate development and social responsibility.

It is a move that the entrepreneur said had been in the works for some time. He has been training “a few candidates” among the younger generation for the chief executive position.

Speculation about who will take over is likely to focus on the heads of Alibaba’s biggest businesses, including Alibaba.com, an online market for small businesses; Taobao, an enormous consumer shopping site; and Alipay, an online payment platform.

Mr. Ma’s early departure will give his replacement time to grow into the role, Mr. Ma said. That could be important when Alibaba finally goes public, sometime down the road. Mr. Ma added that the exact timing or other details of an initial offering haven’t been determined.

Until then, Mr. Ma will remain a powerful figure within the company he founded.

“I will still be very active,” he said. “It is impossible for me to retire.”

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The New Old Age Blog: Study: More to Meal Delivery Than Food

What’s a simpler idea than Meals on Wheels? Older, lower-income people who have trouble driving, cooking or shopping — or paying for food — sign up with a local agency. Each day, volunteers or paid staff come by and drop off a hot lunch. Federal and state dollars and local charities foot the bill.

At the Mobile Meals of Essex headquarters in my town in New Jersey on a recent morning, staffers were stuffing slices of whole wheat bread, pints of low-fat milk and containers of sliced peaches into paper bags. Next, they would ladle the day’s entree — West Indian curried chicken with brown rice and broccoli — onto aluminum trays.

Drivers in vans would fan out through the county, from downtown Newark through the sprawling suburbs, delivering the meals to 475 clients.

The benefit goes beyond food, of course. When his clients answer the door, often using walkers and canes, “I ask them how their morning’s going,” said a driver, Louis Belfiore, who would make 31 stops this day. “I give them their meal, I say, ‘Have a good day.’ They tell me, ‘You have a nice day, too.’”

This may represent the only face-to-face social interaction some homebound people have in the course of a day. And if they don’t come to the door, a series of phone calls ensues. “We’ve had people yell back, ‘I’m on the floor and I can’t get up.’ It doesn’t happen only in commercials,” said Gail Gonnelli, the program’s operations director.

Meals on Wheels advocates have always believed that something this fundamental – a hot meal, a greeting, another set of eyes – can help keep people in their homes longer.

But they didn’t have much evidence to point to, until a couple of Brown University health researchers crunched numbers — from Medicare, states and counties, the federal Administration on Aging and more than 16,000 nursing homes — from 2000 to 2009, publishing their findings in the journal Health Services Research.

The connection they discovered between home-delivered meals and the nursing home population will come as welcome news (though not really news) to Meals on Wheels believers: States that spent more than the average to deliver meals showed greater reductions in the proportion of nursing home residents who didn’t need to be there.

The researchers call these people “low-care” residents. Most people living in nursing homes require around-the-clock skilled care, and policymakers have been pushing to find other ways to care for those who don’t. Still, in 2010 about 12 percent of long-term nursing home patients — a proportion that varies considerably by state — didn’t need this level of care.

“They’re not fully dependent,” explained a co-author of the study, Vincent Mor. “They could be cared for in a community setting, whether that’s assisted living or with a few hours of home care.”

That’s how most older people prefer to live, which is reason enough to try to reserve nursing homes for those who can’t survive any other way. But political budget cutters should love Meals on Wheels, too. For every additional $25 a state spends on home-delivered meals each year per person over 65, the low-care nursing home population decreases by a percentage point, the researchers calculated — a great return on investment.

“We spend a lot on crazy medical interventions that don’t have as much effect as a $5 meal,” Dr. Mor concluded. With this data, “we’re able to see this relationship for the first time.”

(Co-author Kali Thomas — herself a volunteer Meals on Wheels driver in Providence, R.I. — has compiled a state by state list, posted on the Brown University LTCfocus.org Web site, showing how much states could save on Medicaid by delivering more meals.)

Sadly, though, appropriations for home-delivered meals are not increasing. The program served more than 868,000 people in 2010, the latest numbers available. But federal financing through the Older Americans Act has been flat for most of the decade, while food and gas costs — and the number of older people — have risen.

Given current budget pressures, advocates hope they can just hold the line (the “sequester” cuts to the federal budget are still looming unless Congress and the White House can reach agreement on the debt limit and a spending plan). Already, “we’ve seen millions and millions fewer meals,” said Tim Gearan, senior legislative representative at AARP. “Cuts from five-day service to three-day service. A lot more frozen food, which can be inappropriate for people who can’t operate ovens and microwaves. It’s been hard to watch.”

My urban/suburban county, Ms. Gonnelli said, maintains a waiting list: There are always about 65 seniors who qualify for Meals on Wheels, but there is no money to provide the food.

It can be a big step for an older person or his family to acknowledge that they need this kind of basic help and apply. It must be difficult, I said to Ms. Gonnelli, who has run the program for 15 years, to tell applicants she can’t help feed them.

“You have no idea,” she said.


Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

Read More..

The New Old Age Blog: Study: More to Meal Delivery Than Food

What’s a simpler idea than Meals on Wheels? Older, lower-income people who have trouble driving, cooking or shopping — or paying for food — sign up with a local agency. Each day, volunteers or paid staff come by and drop off a hot lunch. Federal and state dollars and local charities foot the bill.

At the Mobile Meals of Essex headquarters in my town in New Jersey on a recent morning, staffers were stuffing slices of whole wheat bread, pints of low-fat milk and containers of sliced peaches into paper bags. Next, they would ladle the day’s entree — West Indian curried chicken with brown rice and broccoli — onto aluminum trays.

Drivers in vans would fan out through the county, from downtown Newark through the sprawling suburbs, delivering the meals to 475 clients.

The benefit goes beyond food, of course. When his clients answer the door, often using walkers and canes, “I ask them how their morning’s going,” said a driver, Louis Belfiore, who would make 31 stops this day. “I give them their meal, I say, ‘Have a good day.’ They tell me, ‘You have a nice day, too.’”

This may represent the only face-to-face social interaction some homebound people have in the course of a day. And if they don’t come to the door, a series of phone calls ensues. “We’ve had people yell back, ‘I’m on the floor and I can’t get up.’ It doesn’t happen only in commercials,” said Gail Gonnelli, the program’s operations director.

Meals on Wheels advocates have always believed that something this fundamental – a hot meal, a greeting, another set of eyes – can help keep people in their homes longer.

But they didn’t have much evidence to point to, until a couple of Brown University health researchers crunched numbers — from Medicare, states and counties, the federal Administration on Aging and more than 16,000 nursing homes — from 2000 to 2009, publishing their findings in the journal Health Services Research.

The connection they discovered between home-delivered meals and the nursing home population will come as welcome news (though not really news) to Meals on Wheels believers: States that spent more than the average to deliver meals showed greater reductions in the proportion of nursing home residents who didn’t need to be there.

The researchers call these people “low-care” residents. Most people living in nursing homes require around-the-clock skilled care, and policymakers have been pushing to find other ways to care for those who don’t. Still, in 2010 about 12 percent of long-term nursing home patients — a proportion that varies considerably by state — didn’t need this level of care.

“They’re not fully dependent,” explained a co-author of the study, Vincent Mor. “They could be cared for in a community setting, whether that’s assisted living or with a few hours of home care.”

That’s how most older people prefer to live, which is reason enough to try to reserve nursing homes for those who can’t survive any other way. But political budget cutters should love Meals on Wheels, too. For every additional $25 a state spends on home-delivered meals each year per person over 65, the low-care nursing home population decreases by a percentage point, the researchers calculated — a great return on investment.

“We spend a lot on crazy medical interventions that don’t have as much effect as a $5 meal,” Dr. Mor concluded. With this data, “we’re able to see this relationship for the first time.”

(Co-author Kali Thomas — herself a volunteer Meals on Wheels driver in Providence, R.I. — has compiled a state by state list, posted on the Brown University LTCfocus.org Web site, showing how much states could save on Medicaid by delivering more meals.)

Sadly, though, appropriations for home-delivered meals are not increasing. The program served more than 868,000 people in 2010, the latest numbers available. But federal financing through the Older Americans Act has been flat for most of the decade, while food and gas costs — and the number of older people — have risen.

Given current budget pressures, advocates hope they can just hold the line (the “sequester” cuts to the federal budget are still looming unless Congress and the White House can reach agreement on the debt limit and a spending plan). Already, “we’ve seen millions and millions fewer meals,” said Tim Gearan, senior legislative representative at AARP. “Cuts from five-day service to three-day service. A lot more frozen food, which can be inappropriate for people who can’t operate ovens and microwaves. It’s been hard to watch.”

My urban/suburban county, Ms. Gonnelli said, maintains a waiting list: There are always about 65 seniors who qualify for Meals on Wheels, but there is no money to provide the food.

It can be a big step for an older person or his family to acknowledge that they need this kind of basic help and apply. It must be difficult, I said to Ms. Gonnelli, who has run the program for 15 years, to tell applicants she can’t help feed them.

“You have no idea,” she said.


Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

Read More..

Gadgetwise Blog: Q&A: Translating PDF to Word

I know you can save a Microsoft Word document as a PDF file, but can you go the other way and save a PDF as a Word document that can be edited?

Several third-party sites or shareware programs can do the job for free or for a small fee, which may be the best option if you just have a small number of files to convert. The converter page on the PDF Online site, the Smart PDF Converter page and shareware like Free PDF to Word Converter for Windows are among the options.

Adobe, which originally developed the PDF format, has instructions for converting PDF files to Word files with its $20-a-year Acrobat.com ExportPDF service on its site. The company also has conversion instructions posted for those using its Acrobat desktop software.

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Pakistan Supreme Court Orders Arrest of Prime Minister





ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – Pakistan’s Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf in a corruption case on Tuesday afternoon, dramatically raising the stakes in a tense standoff between the government and its opponents.




The court order came as an enigmatic preacher turned politician, Muhammad Tahir ul Qadri, addressed thousands of supporters outside Parliament and repeated calls for the government’s ouster. In earlier speeches, he said that a caretaker administration led by technocrats should take its place.


The confluence of the two events stoked growing speculation that Pakistan’s powerful military was quietly supporting moves that would delay general elections that are due to take place this spring, most likely through the imposition of a military-backed caretaker administration.


“Victory, victory, victory. By the grace of God,” said Mr. Qadri at the conclusion of a speech to his supporters, who have vowed not to leave a public square outside Parliament until their demands are satisfied.


It was not certain that the events were linked. Some analysts said that in ordering the prime minister’s arrest, the court, which is led by the independent-minded chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, was simply taking advantage of anti-government sentiment generated by Mr. Qadri to pursue its longstanding grudge against President Asif Ali Zardari.  


Whatever its motivations, the court’s actions added to the chaos in Pakistan, with the stock market dropping 3 percent after word of the court’s order came down.


In the order issued Tuesday, the Supreme Court ordered the National Accountability Bureau, a government body that investigates graft, to arrest Mr. Ashraf and 15 other senior current or former officials, including a former finance minister and a former finance secretary.


The case relates to longstanding allegations that Mr. Ashraf took millions of dollars in kickbacks as part of a deal to build two electricity plants while serving as minister for water and power between March 2008 and February 2011.


The order comes more than a year after two opposition figures filed a complaint in the Supreme Court against Mr. Ashraf. Three months later, in March 2012, the court ruled that the power plants were illegal, ordered their closure, and instituted proceedings against Mr. Ashraf.


The case has particular political resonance because Pakistan’s energy crisis, which has seen severe electricity rationing across the country, is the source of some of the main complaints against the government.


The information minister, Qamar Zaman Kaira, said the government had not received any official notification of the order to arrest Mr. Ashraf.


Fawad Chaudhry, a senior adviser to the prime minister, said that any such order would be "illegal and unconstitutional."


"Under the law, the court cannot arrest him," he said President Zardari called a meeting of senior advisers at his Karachi residence to discuss the crisis late Tuesday, Mr. Chaudhry added.


Mr. Zardari’s supporters have painted the prosecution as part of a politically-motivated drive by Justice Chaudhry to unseat Mr. Zardari. Mr. Ashraf came to power last June after the Supreme Court forced his predecessor, Yousaf Raza Gilani, to resign from office over another corruption-related case.


Whether there was any link between the court order and Mr. Qadri’s march on Islamabad – billed by the preacher as a “million man march” but in reality far smaller – the timing was certainly striking.


Mr. Qadri stormed onto the political scene in Pakistan after returning from a seven-year stint in Canada, where he also holds citizenship, armed with considerable funding that he has used for an intensive television advertising campaign and large rallies.


In his speech Tuesday, which was peppered with emotional Islamic references, he demanded the immediate resignation of the government and painted the country’s elected politicians as “criminals” who deserved to be prosecuted for corruption.


“There is no Parliament. There is a group of looters, thieves and dacoits!” he said in a  thundering voice, pointing to the building behind him. “Our lawmakers are the lawbreakers.”


In contrast, Mr. Qadri offered fulsome support for the military and the Supreme Court, both of which have been at odds with Mr. Zardari’s government at various points in recent years. “Now only two institutions are there – the judiciary and the armed forces,” he said.


Responding to the allegations that he is secretly supported by the military, Mr. Qadri said he was supported by Allah, the Prophet Muhammad and the 180 million people of Pakistan.


The government’s five-year term of office ends in mid-March. Under the constitution, elections are to take place within the following 60 days.


But Ayaz Amir, an opposition politician, said the crisis could actually benefit the government as it would enable it to play the “victim card.”


The developments raise doubts about the government’s ability to make headway in Pakistan’s efforts to achieve stability as a democracy. Should Mr. Ashraf’s administration complete its term and hold peaceful elections, it would be the first such transfer of power in Pakistan’s history.


But speculation that Mr. Qadri or the court could derail that transition grew steadily as events unfolded on Tuesday.


Theories about a link between the two players and the military are not easy to reconcile. Over the last year, Justice Chaudhry has openly clashed with top generals, as part of his court’s bid to carve out its independence from both civilian and military rulers.


Justice Chaudhry has stressed that his court will not act as a rubber stamp to military rule, as previous courts have, and earlier on Tuesday he reportedly stressed the importance of holding elections by mid-May.


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DealBook: U.P.S. to Withdraw $6.9 Billion Takeover of TNT Express

7:38 a.m. | Updated

LONDON — United Parcel Service announced on Monday that it would withdraw its $6.9 billion takeover offer for TNT Express, a Dutch shipping company, after European antitrust authorities told U.P.S. that they would block the deal.

The announcement is a blow to U.P.S.’s expansion outside of the United States as the deal for TNT Express would have given the American company a larger presence in European and emerging markets.

Since first announcing the deal last March, U.P.S. had faced difficulties with European regulators, who feared that the takeover would hamper competition.

To appease antitrust concerns, U.P.S. had agreed to sell a number of business units and to grant access to some of its airline network to rivals. TNT Express also said it would sell its own airline operations as part of the antitrust concessions.

The company had been locked in negotiations with European regulators since November, but was told late last week that its proposed concessions did not meet authorities’ demands. U.P.S. had tried to convince regulators that selling assets to the French shipping company DPD would create enough competition to satisfy regulatory concerns.

The steps did not go far enough.

Competition authorities at the European Commission informed both companies that they would not approve the multibillion-dollar takeover, according to separate statements from U.P.S. and TNT Express on Monday. European officials have until early February to rule officially on the proposed takeover.

“We are extremely disappointed with the European Commission’s position,” U.P.S.’s chief executive, D. Scott Davis, said in a statement. “We proposed significant and tangible remedies designed to address the European Commission’s concerns with the transaction.”

The failure to reach an agreement comes at a difficult time for TNT Express, which has reduced its operations across Europe and faced a series of setbacks in emerging economies like Brazil and China. While the Dutch company has large operations across Europe, analysts say it would need a large injection of investment to expand globally.

Potential new suitors could include Federal Express, whose European business is smaller than that of U.P.S., while a potential deal with the European shipping giant DHL would raise too many antitrust concerns, according to analysts.

Shares in TNT Express fell 40 percent, to 4.94 euros, or $6.60, in morning trading in Amsterdam on Monday. U.P.S.’s failed offer for the Dutch shipping company was 9.50 euros for each share in the Dutch shipping company.

The stock price of PostNL, the largest shareholder in TNT Express, also dropped 35 percent in morning trading on Monday.

“The European Union‘s decision is very disappointing,” said Stephen Furlong, an analyst at Davy Research in Dublin, who rates TNT Express as underperform. “It’s hard to see the company being bought by anyone else.”

After failing to win regulatory approval, U.P.S. has agreed to pay a 200 million euros, or $267 million, termination fee to TNT Express, according to a company statement. The takeover would have been U.P.S.’s largest acquisition in the company’s 105-year history, according to the data provider Capital IQ. U.P.S. will continue to look for opportunities to grow organically and through acquisitions, according to a company spokeswoman.

U.P.S.’s acquisition of TNT Express is the largest failed takeover since the European aerospace giants BAE Systems of Britain and European Aeronautic Defense and Space, or EADS — the parent of Airbus — ended their proposed $45 billion merger talks in October after local politicians and shareholders balked at the deal.

The decision against U.P.S.’s takeover of TNT Express also is the latest move by European competition authorities to thwart multibillion-dollar deals that they believe are against consumers’ interest. Last year, NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Börse called off their planned $9.2 billion merger after European antitrust regulators opposed the deal.

Morgan Stanley, UBS, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and the law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer had advised U.P.S., while Goldman Sachs, Lazard and the law firm Allen & Overy had advised TNT Express and its supervisory board.

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